Immigrants 60% Less Likely to Face Incarceration Than U.S.-Born, Studies Confirm

New research consistently indicates that immigrants in the United States have a significantly lower lifetime chance of being incarcerated compared to native-born Americans. This finding, highlighted by researcher Alex Nowrasteh in a recent social media post, aligns with extensive academic studies spanning over a century and a half. The data challenges common perceptions and political rhetoric linking immigration to higher crime rates.

Multiple studies, including a comprehensive analysis co-led by Northwestern University economist Elisa Jácome and published as a working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research, reveal a persistent trend. Since 1870, immigrants as a group have maintained lower incarceration rates than U.S.-born individuals. This gap has notably widened since 1960, with immigrants today being approximately 60% less likely to be incarcerated than those born in the United States.

Specifically, the research from institutions like Stanford and Northwestern found that immigrants are 30% less likely to be incarcerated relative to U.S.-born whites. This consistent pattern holds across various demographic groups, including immigrants with lower levels of education, who are still significantly less likely to commit crimes than their U.S.-born counterparts. The Cato Institute, where Alex Nowrasteh is affiliated, has also published numerous studies corroborating these findings, emphasizing lower incarceration rates for both legal and undocumented immigrants.

"Immigrants have a lower lifetime chance of being incarcerated than native-born Americans. Just another way to measure what you already know," Nowrasteh stated in his tweet, referencing the robust body of evidence. This data is crucial in public discourse, as it counters arguments that often associate immigration with an increase in criminal activity. Researchers suggest that factors such as immigrant self-selection and differing labor market outcomes may contribute to these lower rates.

The consistent findings from diverse academic and policy organizations underscore that immigrants are not disproportionately contributing to crime. Policymakers are encouraged to consider these comprehensive data points when addressing immigration issues, moving beyond anecdotal evidence to informed decision-making based on long-term statistical trends.