ISW Analyst: Proper Resourcing Unlocks Ukrainian Fighting Potential, Straining Russian War Economy

George Barros, the Russia Team & Geospatial Intelligence Team Lead at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), recently asserted that Ukrainian forces possess significant fighting capability that can be fully realized "if resourced properly." His assessment, shared on social media, underscores the critical role of sustained and adequate international support in the ongoing conflict with Russia. Barros advocates for a more decisive approach, stating,

"Correct assessment. Take the gloves off. Ukrainians will fight if resourced properly."

Barros, a respected voice in the analysis of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, regularly briefs senior military and political decision-makers. His work at ISW focuses on Russian information operations, the Kremlin's operational art, and geospatial intelligence. This perspective frames the conflict as one where strategic resource allocation by the West can directly influence battlefield outcomes and counter Russian objectives.

According to Barros, Russia's strategic objective is to convince the West that the war is unwinnable and that Russian victory is inevitable, albeit slow. However, he highlights significant Russian vulnerabilities, particularly in force generation. Russia's reliance on paying "volunteers" with substantial one-time bonuses and monthly salaries is "eviscerating the Russian coffers," leading to high inflation (20-25%) and a rapidly depleting sovereign wealth fund, which some economists predict could run out by late 2025 or early 2026.

Despite Russia's larger population, Barros argues that "due to Russian managerial mistakes, it is now the Ukrainians who are better situated to exploit a protracted war of attrition." He emphasizes that continued military support to Ukraine, enabling them to inflict significant casualties (30,000-45,000 killed or wounded per month), forces Russia to maintain its costly force generation model. This sustained pressure on Russia's economy and manpower creates a dilemma for Moscow, pushing it towards difficult decisions.

Barros suggests that a well-resourced Ukraine can not only defend its territory but also conduct effective deep-strike campaigns supporting operational maneuvers, imposing conventional losses on the battlefield. This strategic use of resources, including timely intelligence sharing, is crucial to counter Russia's attempts to exhaust Western political will and secure territorial concessions it cannot achieve militarily. The analyst's call to "take the gloves off" implies a need for timely and comprehensive provision of advanced military capabilities to Ukraine.