Libertarian Right Urged to Recalibrate Risk After Perceived Miscalculations in MAGA Alignment

Political commentator Forrest Cox recently called for a significant reassessment of strategy within the "MAGA-adjacent libertarian right," citing past "miscalculations" in their political prognostications. The tweet, posted on November 19, 2025, highlights a growing sentiment among some observers that the alignment of certain libertarian factions with the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement has not yielded the anticipated results.

"Important: many of those prognostications were coming from the newly MAGA-adjacent libertarian right. A recalibration of risk assessment is the very least one should expect after such miscalculation," Forrest Cox stated on social media.

This critique reflects a broader debate about the ideological compromises made by some libertarians who supported former President Donald Trump. During Trump's campaigns, some libertarians, often termed "fusionists," saw an opportunity to advance goals like deregulation, reduced foreign intervention, and anti-establishment disruption, as detailed by articles in Reason magazine. They hoped to pull the Republican Party in a more libertarian direction.

However, this alliance proved contentious, as many traditional libertarians found Trump's policies antithetical to their core principles. His administration pursued protectionist trade tariffs, increased national debt, and expanded executive power, often disregarding civil liberties and the rule of law. These actions directly conflicted with libertarian tenets of individual liberty and limited government, as highlighted by commentators like Trevor Burrus of the Cato Institute.

The "miscalculation" stemmed from the expectation that Trump would genuinely shrink the federal government or dismantle the administrative state. Instead, many libertarians observed an increase in government intervention and a weakening of democratic institutions, leading to what National Review senior editor Ramesh Ponnuru described as a failure of hoped-for reforms. This experience prompted a significant reevaluation of political alliances.

Consequently, the call for a "recalibration of risk assessment" underscores an ongoing internal debate within the libertarian movement. As Jonathan V. Last of The Bulwark noted, the Trump presidency presented a stark contrast to core libertarian tenets, pushing many to articulate their opposition. The movement now grapples with whether to prioritize ideological purity or pragmatic, yet potentially compromising, political engagement in the future.