New York Times Editorial Reports U.S. Murder Rate on Track for Lowest in 65 Years

A recent editorial in The New York Times, highlighted by Rafael A. Mangual, Director of Research for the Policing and Public Safety Initiative at the Manhattan Institute, signals a notable shift in the publication's perspective on crime and public safety. Mangual, in a tweet, described the August 14, 2025, editorial as reflecting "genuine shifts on the editorial board with respect to policing and public safety." This observation points to a broader acknowledgment of evolving crime trends and policy discussions.

The editorial, titled "Crime Keeps Falling. Here’s Why.", details a significant downturn in crime across the United States. It reports that murders fell by 10 percent in 2023, followed by an estimated 15 percent drop in 2024, marking the largest annual declines since reliable records began in 1960. Furthermore, the editorial projects a continued decrease, with murders in major cities on track to fall by approximately 20 percent in 2025, potentially leading to the lowest murder rate in at least 65 years.

This analysis from The New York Times suggests that the crime spike experienced during and after the COVID-19 pandemic has been largely erased. The editorial attributes this reversal to factors such as the easing of the pandemic's disruptions and a receding "legal cynicism" that emerged following events like George Floyd's murder. It also notes that local officials have reinstated tougher policing strategies, and some states have rolled back laws reducing penalties for low-level offenses, contributing to the crime suppression.

The editorial also reflects on the "defund the police" movement that gained traction during the 2020 protests. While acknowledging that police funding did not significantly decline in most cities, the piece suggests that the public criticisms did lead to some officers quitting their jobs or a "pullback" in policing. The Times cautions against complacency, urging policymakers to learn from this period to further reduce crime and address other societal issues.

Rafael A. Mangual's tweet underscores the significance of this editorial, indicating a prominent media outlet's evolving narrative on these critical issues. The shift in focus from rising crime to a documented decline, coupled with a nuanced discussion of policing strategies, marks a notable development in the national discourse on public safety.