Noah Smith Advocates for Significant Crime Reduction Through Targeted Incarceration

Economist and prominent blogger Noah Smith recently posited that focusing incarceration efforts on a small number of individuals responsible for the majority of violent crimes could lead to substantial reductions in overall crime rates. In a tweet posted on August 27, 2025, Smith stated, > "Most violent crimes are committed by just a very few people, though, so I think putting those people in prison can probably reduce crime by a lot." This assertion highlights a shift or clarification in his perspectives on public safety and criminal justice.

Smith, known for his "Noahpinion" blog, has frequently engaged with topics of urbanism, public order, and economic policy. His current stance on targeted incarceration aligns with previous discussions where he has emphasized the importance of public safety for the functionality and livability of cities. He has also previously acknowledged that mass incarceration, despite its criticisms, may have been effective in lowering crime rates in the U.S., as noted in a July 11, 2025, tweet.

The concept that a disproportionately small number of offenders commit a large percentage of crimes is a recognized principle in criminology, often referred to as the "Pareto principle" or "80/20 rule" applied to criminal behavior. This perspective suggests that resources could be more effectively deployed by identifying and incapacitating these high-rate offenders. Such a strategy aims to maximize public safety benefits while potentially mitigating the broader societal costs associated with widespread incarceration.

This approach contrasts with broader policy discussions that emphasize social interventions, addressing root causes of crime, or reducing overall incarceration rates. While Smith's tweet did not delve into the complexities of identifying these "very few people" or the ethical considerations of such a focused strategy, it reignites the debate on the efficacy of incarceration as a primary tool for crime reduction. The discussion around public order and its impact on urban development continues to be a central theme in his commentary.