Partisan Divide in U.S. Birth Rates Widens by 17 Percent, Studies Show

A notable divergence in birth rates linked to political affiliation has emerged in the United States, with recent data and research indicating a widening gap between right-leaning and left-leaning populations. This trend highlights how deeply political sentiment may influence personal decisions, including family planning. As observed by social media user Crémieux, who stated in a recent tweet, > "In recent decades in the U.S. and across the developed world, birth rates have barely changed for right-wingers. The more left-wing, the more fertility rates have fallen!"

Overall, the U.S. fertility rate continues to decline, currently averaging around 1.6 births per woman, significantly below the 2.1 replacement rate needed to maintain population levels. This mirrors a global phenomenon, prompting discussions about future economic growth and an aging workforce. However, studies now reveal a distinct partisan pattern within this broader decline.

Research, including work by economist Gordon Dahl, indicates a clear shift in fertility patterns following the 2016 presidential election. During the first years of the Trump administration, the partisan birth gap widened by 17 percent, with Republican-leaning counties experiencing an increase in conceptions relative to Democratic counties. The Institute for Family Studies further notes that for every 10% increase in votes for Donald Trump in 2024, there is an expected increase of 0.09 babies in a woman’s lifetime, and this relationship has grown 85 percent in the past 12 years.

Several factors may contribute to this growing divide. Political shifts can influence public optimism, affecting individuals' willingness to have children. Right-leaning areas often exhibit cultural values that prioritize marriage and family life, alongside economic advantages such as more affordable housing, hotter job markets, and lower taxes, which can be appealing to those looking to start or expand families.

Conversely, individuals in left-leaning areas may express concerns about the political climate, the state of the world, and the affordability of raising children, including childcare costs and access to family leave. The overturning of Roe v. Wade has also introduced new considerations regarding reproductive rights, potentially influencing family planning decisions among some demographics. Despite these trends, experts caution that policies explicitly designed to encourage higher birth rates have shown limited success globally.