Polymarket Claims 100% Accuracy in 2024 U.S. State Election Calls

Polymarket, a prominent decentralized prediction market platform, has announced a flawless record in predicting the outcomes of all 50 U.S. states in the recent 2024 Presidential Election. The platform shared its achievement via social media, stating, "> '50 out of 50 states called correctly 😌,'". This claim highlights the growing influence of prediction markets as an alternative to traditional polling methods in forecasting political events.

Prediction markets like Polymarket operate on the "Wisdom of Crowds" principle, where participants wager real money on future events, theoretically incentivizing accurate predictions. This model contrasts sharply with conventional polling, which has faced scrutiny for inaccuracies in recent U.S. elections, including 2016 and 2020. Researchers have increasingly examined prediction markets as potentially more reliable indicators of public sentiment and electoral outcomes.

A comprehensive academic study published in July 2025, titled "Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?", specifically analyzed Polymarket's performance in the 2024 election. This research concluded that Polymarket's data was "superior to polling in predicting the 2024 presidential election outcomes," particularly in key swing states where traditional polls often struggled. The platform consistently indicated a victory for Donald Trump earlier and more decisively than conventional surveys, demonstrating a more dynamic response to significant campaign events, such as candidate announcements or debates.

Despite its notable predictive success, Polymarket has faced scrutiny and regulatory hurdles, including a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Technology Commission (CFTC) that restricted U.S. participation. The company recently announced its strategic re-entry into the U.S. market through the acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-regulated exchange. However, critics continue to highlight the market's vulnerability to manipulation, citing instances of "wash trading" and the influence of substantial wagers from a limited number of large players, which some analysts suggest can skew the perceived odds.

The claimed perfect record reignites debates about the efficacy of prediction markets versus traditional polling. While Polymarket's model, driven by financial incentives, offers a different lens into public expectations, concerns persist regarding user demographics—primarily cryptocurrency holders—and the potential for market manipulation. Further research is needed to understand how to "harden these markets" against such vulnerabilities, ensuring their responsible use in forecasting future events.