Public Desire for Reduced Immigration Halves to 30% as Border Crossings Decline, Gallup Poll Shows

Political commentator Matthew Yglesias recently voiced concerns about the Democratic Party's approach to immigration, characterizing it as a "catch a falling knife" problem. In a tweet, Yglesias stated, > "I like this piece a lot, but I think Democrats have a “catch a falling knife” problem on immigration. If the Biden administration had handled things the way Demsas suggests, I think voters would have liked it and we could move on to debating other things." This commentary points to a perceived instability and voter dissatisfaction with current immigration policies.

The "catch a falling knife" metaphor likely refers to the significant challenges faced by the Biden administration, which inherited a complex immigration landscape and saw U.S.-Mexico border encounters climb to historic highs in fiscal year 2023. This period was marked by public perception of an "uncontrolled" border, leading to widespread criticism from across the political spectrum. The administration's initial efforts to reverse Trump-era policies were met with record irregular arrivals, creating a sense of chaos.

Yglesias's reference to "Demsas" points to Jerusalem Demsas, a journalist who advocates for a "common sense" approach to immigration. Demsas argues that public opinion on immigration is nuanced; voters react negatively to perceived chaos and a lack of control, such as migrants visibly straining city resources or sleeping on streets, rather than immigration itself. She differentiates between orderly immigration, which is generally viewed positively, and disorderly arrivals that create a sense of overwhelmed systems.

Recent data, however, suggests a notable shift in public sentiment and border dynamics. A July 2025 Gallup poll indicates that the share of Americans desiring reduced immigration has nearly halved, dropping from 55% in 2024 to 30%. Concurrently, a record 79% of U.S. adults now view immigration as a "good thing" for the country. This positive shift coincides with a sharp decline in illegal border crossings, with U.S. Border Patrol encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal year 2024 being the fewest since fiscal year 2020, according to the Migration Policy Institute.

The Biden administration has implemented stricter measures, including the "Circumvention of Lawful Pathways" and "Securing the Border" rules, which limit asylum access and incentivize legal pathways through tools like the CBP One app. These policy adjustments, coupled with a decrease in irregular crossings, appear to have resonated with public concerns about border management. The evolving public opinion suggests that addressing perceived disorder and control issues, even through stricter enforcement, can lead to a more favorable view of immigration policy.