Senator Alex Padilla's Withdrawal Reshapes California Governor's Race Amid Hypothetical Poll Lead

U.S. Senator Alex Padilla announced his decision not to run for California Governor in the 2026 election, a move that surprised many political observers. This announcement comes as a recent Berkeley IGS poll reportedly indicated that Padilla would have held a lead over Democratic frontrunner Katie Porter, as noted by journalist Jeremy B. White. Padilla confirmed his commitment to his current role, stating, "It is with a full heart and even more commitment than ever that I am choosing to not be running for governor of California next year."

Padilla, who was appointed to the Senate in 2021 to fill Kamala Harris's vacant seat, had been the subject of months of speculation regarding a gubernatorial bid. His decision, made public on November 4, 2025, means he will remain in the Senate, with his current term extending until 2029. He emphasized his desire to "stay in this fight" for the Constitution and fundamental rights, indicating a focus on his federal legislative duties.

The Berkeley IGS poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, has been a key indicator in the nascent gubernatorial race. While the poll did not present a direct head-to-head between Padilla and Porter, it suggested Padilla held the highest favorability ratings among potential contenders. Meanwhile, the same poll revealed a shift in the landscape for other candidates, with former Rep. Katie Porter's support dropping from 17% in August to 11% by late October, placing her behind Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 13%.

Porter's recent decline in poll numbers has been attributed by some analysts to public incidents, including a heated exchange with a television reporter and a resurfaced video of an outburst with a staff member. Her campaign, however, maintains that she remains the strongest Democrat in the race, backed by a growing coalition of grassroots supporters. Padilla's absence leaves a wide-open Democratic field, with other notable figures like former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa also in contention for the state's top office.