Stefanik Leads Hochul by One Point in Key New York Gubernatorial Poll

A new poll from the Manhattan Institute indicates that Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is leading incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul (D-NY) in a hypothetical matchup for the New York gubernatorial election. The survey, conducted from October 22-26, 2025, suggests a potentially competitive race, with Stefanik polling at 43 percent to Hochul’s 42 percent among New York voters. This marks a significant development in a state traditionally dominated by Democratic leadership.

The Manhattan Institute poll also found Stefanik ahead of Lieutenant Governor Anthony Delgado (D-NY) by six points, 43 percent to 37 percent. The survey included 600 New York City voters and 300 New York State voters, with a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points. This unexpected lead for a Republican candidate has drawn attention to the upcoming 2026 gubernatorial contest.

Bernadette Breslin, a spokesman for Representative Stefanik, highlighted the historical nature of these results. "This marks the first time in decades that any potential Republican gubernatorial candidate is polling ahead of a Democrat incumbent Governor, even before any official announcement," Breslin stated, emphasizing the potential shift in the state's political landscape. Stefanik, a prominent supporter of former President Donald J. Trump, has not yet officially declared her candidacy.

Governor Hochul, who secured a narrow victory in 2022, is reportedly seeking re-election and faces a primary challenge from Delgado. While the Manhattan Institute poll shows Stefanik with a slight edge, other recent surveys have presented varying outcomes. A Siena College poll from early September 2025 reportedly showed Hochul with a substantial 25-point lead over Stefanik, illustrating the fluidity of voter sentiment as the election cycle progresses.

The political climate in New York City could also influence the statewide race. The tweet mentions the increasingly likely election of socialist Zohran Mamdani as Mayor of New York City, a candidate Hochul has publicly supported. Mamdani's policy proposals, including plans for increased taxpayer funds for legal defense of undocumented immigrants and discussions around the "abolition of private property," could become a point of contention and impact voter perceptions in the broader gubernatorial contest.