Stephen Kotkin: Trump's Unpredictability Could Unsettle Putin's Maximalist Demands for Ukraine

Renowned historian of Russia, Stephen Kotkin, suggests that former President Donald Trump possesses a unique leverage over Russian President Vladimir Putin, capable of disrupting Moscow's "maximalist demands." This analysis comes amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and recent high-level interactions between U.S. and Russian leadership. Kotkin's perspective highlights Trump's unconventional approach as a potential factor in altering the current trajectory of the conflict in Ukraine.

According to Kotkin, Putin's ultimate objective is the "elimination of Ukraine as a viable state." This includes establishing a puppet regime in Kyiv, severing Ukraine's independent security ties with Western nations, and reducing its armed forces to a token presence, effectively treating Ukraine as a "historical fiction." This ambition, Kotkin argues, represents Putin's "irreducible minimum" in the ongoing conflict.

Kotkin, a senior fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, emphasizes that Trump's unpredictability could be the key to challenging these deeply entrenched Russian objectives. As noted in a recent social media post by Helen Raleigh, quoting Kotkin, > "Putin may smirk. He may walk down that red carpet in a strut. He may joke for the camera with President Trump. But ultimately, Trump holds the cards. And if the president uses those cards, he could unsettle Putin’s smirk, his self-confidence, and his maximalist demands."

This assessment follows discussions surrounding a recent Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, where experts debated the potential for diplomatic breakthroughs. Kotkin's analysis suggests that while Putin may appear confident, Trump's willingness to rebalance U.S. relationships and challenge traditional alliances could force a re-evaluation within the Kremlin. His approach may also compel European allies to take more decisive action, potentially creating the political pressure necessary to shift Putin's calculus, which, according to Kotkin, only responds to threats to his regime's stability.