Study Finds Negligible Impact of Trade War Compensation on Republican Farmers' Political Engagement

A new academic study challenges the long-held political theory of "deliverism," revealing that direct economic benefits had little effect on the political engagement of Republican farmers. Research by Jake Jares and Neil Malhotra, published in the American Political Science Review, found that despite varying levels of financial compensation for losses incurred during the 2018 U.S.-China trade war, farmers' voting behavior and campaign contributions remained largely unchanged.

The study, titled "Policy Impact and Voter Mobilization: Evidence from Farmers' Trade War Experiences," analyzed over 165,000 farmers who received payments through the Trump administration's Market Facilitation Program (MFP). This program aimed to offset financial damage from retaliatory tariffs. Due to its design, some farmers were overcompensated for their losses, while others were undercompensated, based on their specific crop portfolios.

"Deliverism" posits a direct link between economic policy success and political allegiance, suggesting voters reward parties that deliver tangible benefits. However, Jares and Malhotra's findings indicate that even when farmers perceived the MFP as helpful, the degree of individual compensation did not significantly influence their midterm election turnout or campaign donations. This outcome challenges the traditional "pocketbook voter" narrative often associated with agricultural constituencies.

The research suggests that cultural and identity-based concerns may now outweigh purely economic considerations in shaping political behavior among this key demographic. While the broader salience of the trade war and the MFP did modestly increase overall political participation among affected farmers compared to the general electorate, the specific financial outcomes for individual farmers did not translate into proportional changes in their engagement.

Political scientist Jake M. Grumbach highlighted the findings on social media, stating, "More on the decline of deliverism: the Republican farmer edition, from @JakeJares and @namalhotra." He also noted that the full paper is available via an open-access link, providing further insight into this evolving understanding of voter motivation.