Trump's Approval Rating Hits 37%, Political Strategist Sarah Longwell Reports

Political strategist Sarah Longwell, a prominent Republican voice known for her "Never Trump" stance and extensive voter focus groups, recently asserted that former President Donald Trump "does not, in fact, have the best numbers." This statement, made on November 2, 2025, follows a period of fluctuating public opinion and a notable decline in his approval ratings. According to an Associated Press poll cited by Longwell during an October 2025 MSNBC appearance, Trump's approval had fallen to a new low of 37% during his second term, with a substantial 61% expressing disapproval.

Longwell's analysis in October 2025 highlighted that Trump's administration was "underwater" by nearly 20 points on both economic management and immigration, suggesting widespread voter dissatisfaction with his performance in these critical areas. She indicated that his intense focus on prosecuting political adversaries and escalating immigration enforcement efforts contributed significantly to this downturn. This recent assessment contrasts sharply with her earlier observations in February 2025, where she noted that Trump's approval, reaching 53% in a CBS poll and 47% in a Pew survey, was "positive relative to Trump's" historical performance, driven by a perceived sense of "action" from his administration, particularly on immigration.

Despite the earlier "honeymoon phase" observed in early 2025, Longwell's research consistently points to underlying voter skepticism. Her April 2025 analysis suggested that Trump's overall approval rating was, at times, higher than his specific approval on economic management, indicating a disconnect between general sentiment and confidence in his economic policies. Voters, while often approving of perceived "movement" and strong stances on issues like immigration and cultural debates such as Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI), also express reservations about the "cruelty" and divisiveness of his rhetoric.

Longwell, who also publishes The Bulwark and founded Republican Voters Against Trump, has frequently observed that the former president's numerous legal challenges have historically had minimal impact on his dedicated support base. However, the recent dip to a 37% approval rating, as reported in October 2025, positions Trump in an "incredibly risky place," according to Longwell, as public sentiment appears to be shifting on his policy priorities and overall governance.