Trump's Denuclearization Claims Face Reality of Russia's Hardened Nuclear Stance

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has asserted that Russia is "willing" to pursue denuclearization and anticipates China will follow suit, a claim that starkly contrasts with recent developments in Russia's nuclear policy. Speaking on August 25, 2025, Trump stated, > "One of the things we're trying to do with Russia and with China is denuclearization. ... Russia is willing to do it, and I think China is going to be willing to do it, too." He emphasized the importance of preventing nuclear proliferation, adding, "We can’t let nuclear weapons proliferate. We have to stop nuclear weapons. The power is too great."

Despite Trump's optimistic outlook, Russia has recently adopted a more assertive nuclear posture. In November 2024, President Vladimir Putin formalized updates to Russia's nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear weapon use. This revised doctrine explicitly extends Russia's nuclear protection to Belarus and allows for nuclear retaliation in response to conventional attacks that threaten the "sovereignty or territorial integrity" of Russia or its allies, a significant departure from the previous "threat to the very existence of the state" criterion.

Moscow also suspended its participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) in February 2023, citing U.S. support for Ukraine. This suspension leaves the world's two largest nuclear powers without limits on their deployed strategic forces, with the treaty set to expire in February 2026. Russia has also consistently opposed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) and revoked its ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in November 2023.

Trump's remarks come amidst his stated interest in nuclear talks with Russia and China, a position he has signaled since January 2025. He previously attempted to initiate three-way talks in 2020, which China declined. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun has reiterated China’s long-standing position that the United States and Russia, as the largest nuclear powers, should make "drastic and substantive cuts to their nuclear arsenals" first, creating conditions for other nuclear-weapon states to join disarmament efforts.

The discrepancy between Trump's public statements and Russia's actual policy shifts highlights the complex and challenging landscape of global nuclear arms control. While Trump expresses a desire for denuclearization, Russia's recent actions indicate a strategic reliance on its nuclear arsenal, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions.