Vietnam Adopts China's "Grey Zone" Tactics in South China Sea, Expanding Influence Below Conflict Threshold

Helen Raleigh, a prominent commentator, recently observed that Vietnam is increasingly employing tactics reminiscent of China's "Grey Zone" playbook in the South China Sea. This strategy involves asserting national interests through actions that fall below the threshold of conventional warfare, aiming to achieve strategic gains without triggering direct military conflict. The tweet, which included a link, highlighted Vietnam's evolving approach in the contested maritime region.

Vietnam has notably expanded its presence in the South China Sea through various means. Recent reports indicate Hanoi's efforts to expand its system of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in the East Sea—its official term for the South China Sea—and significantly increase its land reclamation on disputed features in the Spratly Islands. This includes adding over 2,200 acres across ten features, enhancing logistics and defense capabilities without overt militarization.

China's "Grey Zone" playbook, which Vietnam appears to be emulating, typically involves a range of coercive actions short of armed conflict. These tactics include the extensive use of maritime militia and coast guard vessels to enforce territorial claims, frequent incursions into disputed areas, and the establishment of administrative control through non-military means. China has utilized methods such as bow-crossing, blocking, swarming, and water cannon attacks against vessels from other claimant states.

The strategic rationale behind these "Grey Zone" operations is to gradually alter the status quo and solidify territorial claims while avoiding direct military confrontation that could provoke a larger international response. For Vietnam, this approach allows it to bolster its sovereignty claims and enhance its maritime presence under the guise of environmental stewardship or infrastructure development. This contrasts with China's more aggressive actions, which have drawn widespread criticism.

The adoption of such tactics by Vietnam signals a potential shift in regional dynamics, where nations are increasingly seeking to advance their interests through unconventional means. This trend could lead to heightened tensions and a more complex security environment in the South China Sea, as countries navigate a space between peace and open conflict. The international community continues to monitor these developments, recognizing the potential for miscalculation and escalation in the strategically vital waterway.