Despite the administration's assertions, U.S. intelligence agencies reportedly concluded that the gang is not directed by the Venezuelan government, directly contradicting a key justification for a series of controversial deportations. The New Yorker highlighted this discrepancy, stating, "How Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan gang, became a scapegoat for Donald Trump’s lawless immigration policy."
Tren de Aragua originated in Venezuela's Tocorón prison around 2013-2014, evolving into a transnational criminal enterprise involved in human smuggling and trafficking, drug trafficking, extortion, and kidnapping across Latin America and into the United States. Its leader, Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, known as "Niño Guerrero," has overseen its expansion. The gang's presence in the U.S. has been a focal point for increased border security measures, with enhanced screenings for Venezuelan male migrants.
In a move to combat the perceived threat, former President Trump signed an executive order in January 2025, initiating the process to designate Tren de Aragua as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. He subsequently invoked the 1798 Alien Enemies Act, a rarely used wartime statute, to summarily deport individuals accused of TdA membership. This policy was predicated on the claim that the U.S. was under "invasion" by the gang, allegedly acting at the direction of the Venezuelan government to destabilize the nation.
However, U.S. intelligence agencies, in an assessment circulated in February 2025, reportedly found no evidence that the Venezuelan government was orchestrating TdA's operations in the U.S. or directing its criminal activities. This intelligence finding directly undercut the administration's rationale for employing the Alien Enemies Act. Furthermore, federal judges have largely rejected the "invasion" claim, ruling that immigration surges do not meet the legal definition required for the act's application, leading to court-ordered freezes on further deportations under the statute.
Critics argue that the administration's rhetoric and policies have exaggerated the threat posed by TdA, using it as a "scapegoat" to justify harsh immigration enforcement and rally political support. This approach has led to concerns about due process, with reports of individuals being deported with tenuous or unproven links to the gang. The ongoing legal battles and the intelligence community's findings underscore a significant divergence between the administration's public narrative and factual assessments regarding Tren de Aragua.