ARK Invest Forecasts SpaceX to Reach $2.5 Trillion Valuation by 2030

ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, has released a new valuation model projecting that Elon Musk's space exploration company, SpaceX, could achieve an enterprise value of approximately $2.5 trillion by 2030. The investment management firm announced its forecast, stating, > "Our SpaceX forecast — have you seen it yet? Read the valuation model now." This projection represents a significant increase from SpaceX's last funding round valuation of $350 billion in December 2024, implying a compound annual return of about 38%.

The comprehensive valuation model, developed in collaboration with consulting firm Mach33, utilizes a Monte Carlo analysis with 17 key independent inputs. ARK Invest's base case for 2030 is $2.5 trillion, with bull and bear cases ranging from $1.7 trillion to $3.1 trillion, respectively. This analysis suggests that SpaceX's primary revenue driver will be its Starlink satellite internet service.

ARK's model estimates that Starlink could generate $300 billion in annual revenue by 2035, capturing approximately 15% of the global communications spending market. This revenue potential is comparable to current sales figures of major technology companies like Apple. The forecast is heavily contingent on the successful completion and expansion of Starlink's satellite constellation, which is planned to grow from 7,600 to 42,000 satellites by 2035.

Beyond Starlink, the report also delves into SpaceX's long-term vision of making humanity multiplanetary, with a focus on Mars colonization. ARK Invest believes that Elon Musk's other ventures, such as Tesla's Optimus robots and The Boring Company's machinery, are integral to developing the necessary infrastructure for Mars. While acknowledging the speculative nature of extraterrestrial commerce, the firm anticipates Mars-related business to begin influencing SpaceX's valuation in the late 2030s.

Investors seeking exposure to SpaceX, which remains a privately held company, can do so indirectly through ARK's Venture Fund (ARKVX), where SpaceX constitutes over 13% of total holdings. The report also highlights inherent risks and limitations, including execution challenges, the necessity of Starship's rapid reusability, and potential delays in the development of Mars infrastructure or increased competition in the broadband market.