Full Autonomy for Personal Cars Remains Distant by 2035, Challenging "Car Ownership is Dead" Claims

Recent projections indicate that widespread personal car ownership is unlikely to be rendered obsolete by autonomous vehicles in the near future, despite bold claims suggesting otherwise. A tweet from "Neil - e/acc" stated, > "Car ownership is dead. Just get something that lasts until automation," reflecting a techno-optimist view on rapid technological shifts. However, expert analyses suggest a more gradual transition for autonomous vehicle adoption.

A white paper from the World Economic Forum, published in April 2025, forecasts that only about 4% of new personal cars sold by 2035 are expected to feature Level 4 (L4) autonomous capabilities, where the vehicle can handle all driving tasks under specific conditions without human intervention. This indicates that traditional assisted driving systems (L2 and L2+) will continue to dominate the personal vehicle market for the next decade. The report attributes this slower-than-anticipated rollout to significant technological, regulatory, and economic challenges.

While personal vehicle autonomy faces a protracted timeline, the deployment of robotaxis and autonomous trucks is expected to be more substantial, albeit still geographically limited. By 2035, robotaxis are projected to operate at scale in 40 to 80 cities globally, predominantly in China and the United States. Autonomous trucking, driven by strong business cases and efficiency gains, is also set for increased adoption, particularly for long-haul routes.

Despite the continued prevalence of personal car ownership, trends suggest a growing willingness among consumers, especially younger generations and urban dwellers, to embrace alternative transportation models. Car-sharing and ride-hailing services are gaining traction, contributing to a potential reduction in individual car ownership in specific contexts. Studies show that policies like increased residential parking fees and enhanced public transport can further encourage a shift away from private vehicles.

The "e/acc" (effective accelerationism) movement, to which the tweet's author subscribes, is a techno-optimist philosophy advocating for accelerated technological progress, particularly in artificial intelligence, as a solution to societal problems. This perspective often anticipates rapid and transformative changes. However, the complex realities of infrastructure development, regulatory frameworks, and consumer adoption mean that the "death" of car ownership due to automation is a more distant prospect than some futurists predict.