Geopolitical Tensions Escalate Over Control of Foundational AI and Semiconductor Technologies

Joshua Steinman, former Special Assistant to the President for Cyber, has issued a stark warning that future global conflicts could be waged over the mastery of foundational digital technologies. Steinman, a prominent voice in national security and technology policy, articulated this perspective on social media, stating, > "the next world war could be fought over the mechanisms by which we smartly rearrange grains of sand." This statement underscores the escalating geopolitical competition centered on the intricate processes behind artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor manufacturing.

The metaphorical "rearrangement of grains of sand" directly refers to the highly complex and specialized process of fabricating semiconductors, the tiny microchips that are the bedrock of all modern technology, including advanced AI systems. Nations are increasingly recognizing that control over chip design, manufacturing, and the underlying data infrastructure is paramount for economic power and national security. This has fueled an intense rivalry, particularly between the United States and China.

The United States, through initiatives like the CHIPS and Science Act, has committed billions to bolster domestic semiconductor production and research, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains. Concurrently, it has implemented export controls to limit China's access to advanced AI chips and manufacturing equipment. In response, China is aggressively pursuing technological self-sufficiency, investing heavily in its own semiconductor industry and fostering indigenous innovation to overcome these restrictions.

Taiwan, home to the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), holds a critical position in this global contest, producing over 60% of the world's advanced sub-7-nanometer chips essential for AI and 5G technologies. The concentration of advanced chip manufacturing in Taiwan highlights a significant geopolitical vulnerability and a key flashpoint in the ongoing struggle for technological dominance. Experts suggest that the competition for AI superiority and semiconductor control will fundamentally reshape international relations and military capabilities in the coming decades.